| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Previous | Actual |
| 20, February 2012 |
| 01:30 | NZ | PMI Services | - | 50.9 | 53.6 |
Gauge for the overall performance of the country's service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the country's service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.
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| 01:45 | NZ | PPI Input | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by New Zealand manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. The figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year.
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| 01:45 | NZ | PPI Output | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.
There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year.
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| 03:50 | JA | Merchandise Trade Exports | -9.4% | -8% | -9.3% |
Reflects changes in the volume of exported goods in relation to the previous year. Higher headline figures bode well for exporters.
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| 03:50 | JA | Merchandise Trade Imports | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% |
Reflects changes in the volume of imported goods in comparison to the previous year. Increase in the figures has negative impact on the trade balance, but yet might be suggestive of more vivid business and consumer activity.
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| 03:50 | JA | Trade Balance adjusted | -JPY 847.8 bln | -JPY 567.6 bln | -JPY 612.8 bln |
The difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive figure indicates a trade surplus while a negative value represents a trade deficit. Because Japan 's economy is highly export-led, trade data can give critical insight into developments in Japan 's economy and changes into foreign exchange rates.
A surplus reflects capital flowing into Japan in exchange for Japanese exports, and a deficit means that capital is flowing out of Japan as imports are purchased in larger volumes by Japanese consumers. A trade surplus will act as an appreciating weight on the Yen, whereas a trade deficit will place downward pressure on the Yen's value.
Details in the Trade Balance report itself give useful insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for the country, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses. Any affect on this could have dramatic affect on the domestic economy.
The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in millions of Yen and usually accompanied by a year-on-year percentage change figure.
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| 04:00 | UK | Rightmove House Prices | - | -0.8% m/m, 0.4% y/y | 4.1% m/m, 1.4% y/y |
House prices index in Great Britain.
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| 09:00 | JA | Leading indicators | - | 94.3 | 94 |
A composite of 12 major leading indices for Japan . Movements in these indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy.
The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.
The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.
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| 09:00 | JA | Coincident indicators | - | 93.2 | 93.6 |
Measures the current economic activity based on a composite of indicators that track current business conditions in Japan . The headline number is derived by comparing the number of expanding indicators to the total number of indicators used. A headline number reading of 50% means that half of the available indicators are expanding.
Included in the index are; the expansion or contraction of industrial production, capacity utilization, retail and wholesale sales, power consumption, non-scheduled work hours, the job-offer rate and operating profits.
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| 11:45 | FR | Business Confidence | 92 | 91 | 92 |
This indicator is a reflection of the current business conditions in the Euro area. It represents the surveys results of business sector in France
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| 12:00 | EU | The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) Meeting | - | - | - |
The Ecofin Council, which is composed of the Ministers of the Economy and/or Finance of the EU Member States, meets once a month. The Ministers discuss issues including the coordination of economic policy, financial services, tax and the euro. The EU Budget Ministers also tackle the adoption of the EU budget within this Council.
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| 13:00 | IT | Industrial orders | 0.4% m/m, -5.6% y/y | 0.1% m/m, -0.7% y/y | 5.5% m/m, -4.3% y/y |
The value of new contracts for goods produced by the manufacturing sector. A rising level of Industrial New Orders forecasts increased production and a rising GDP. There are two headline numbers released for this report, month to month and annualized change.
Note: Although the industrial manufacturing sector contributes only a quarter of Euro-zone GDP, it accounts for most of the variations in GDP.
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| 16:00 | US | President's Day | - | - | - |
A federal holiday held on the third Monday of February.
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| 21, February 2012 |
| 04:30 | AU | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes | - | - | - |
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its meeting.
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| 06:30 | AU | RBA Gov Stevens Speaks | - | - | - |
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, Glenn Stevens has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
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| 08:30 | JA | All Industry Activity Index | 1.6% | -1.1% | 1.3% |
Evaluates the monthly change in overall production by all sectors of the Japanese economy. The Index comprises a variety of industries: service, manufacturing, construction and public sectors are all included. The index closely follows Japanese GDP and overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion. The All Industry Activity Index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month's figure.
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| 11:00 | CH | Trade Balance | CHF 1.95 bln | CHF 2.07 bln | CHF 1.55 bln |
A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
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| 12:00 | CH | M3 Money Supply | - | 7.7% | 8.2% |
The total supply of money in circulation in a given country's economy at a specific time. The primary measures of money supply include: M1, M2, and M3...
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| 13:00 | EU | The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) Meeting | - | - | - |
The Ecofin Council, which is composed of the Ministers of the Economy and/or Finance of the EU Member States, meets once a month. The Ministers discuss issues including the coordination of economic policy, financial services, tax and the euro. The EU Budget Ministers also tackle the adoption of the EU budget within this Council.
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| 13:30 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -GBP 8.9 bln | GBP 10.8 bln | -GBP 7.8 bln |
The amount of new debt held by the UK governments. In the long run, the public sector account must be in balance in order for the economy to be sustainable. If the UK spends more than what it earns, it must finance this budget deficit with an increase in Net Borrowing. Because budget deficits are generally unfavorable for the economy, growth in Net Borrowing is considered bearish for the Pound. Likewise, if Net Borrowing is negative, it means the UK is running a budget surplus and, rather than borrowing money, is a net lender. The headline number is the net borrowing for the previous month in billions of Pounds.
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| 13:30 | UK | PSNCR | -GBP 24.7 bln | GBP 22.9 bln | -GBP 16.8 bln |
The amount of money financed to the UK government. A higher value indicates a worsening fiscal condition for the British Government as the public sector is unable to maintain its spending patterns without further financing. As with any economy, budget deficits are unfavorable and viewed as bearish for the Pound.
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| 17:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is released on scheduled days, normally toward the end of each calendar month.
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| 17:30 | CA | Retail Sales Ex-Auto | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0% |
Monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.
The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the Canadian economy.
The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month - returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos
The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result, changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely.
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| 17:30 | CA | Retail Sales | -0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.
The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.
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| 17:30 | CA | Wholesale sales | - | -0.4% m/m, 6.5% y/y | 0.9% m/m, 6.8% y/y |
The value of sales made by Canadian wholesalers. Wholesalers sell to industries and retailers in quantities far larger than most consumers are willing to purchase. Given that growth in Wholesale Trade usually precedes increases in retail trade and consumption, changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption, and the economy. The headline figure reports the monthly percentage change for Wholesale Sales, seasonally adjusted to account for variations in demand due to seasonal cycles.
These sectors are farm products, food, beverages, and tobacco products, personal and household goods, automotive products, building materials, machinery and electronic equipment, and other products.
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| 19:00 | EU | Consumer Confidence | -20.1 | -20.7 | -20.2 |
Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone's economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.
A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.
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| 22, February 2012 |
| 03:00 | AU | Leading Index (Conference Board) | - | -0.3% | 0.2% |
The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.
The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.
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| 06:00 | NZ | Credit Card Spending | - | 0.9% m/m, 5.9% y/y | 0.8% m/m, 3.1% y/y |
Shows a change in the total expenditure made via credit cards.
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| 06:30 | CN | PMI Manufacturing (HSBC) | - | 48.8 | 49.7 |
A monthly guage of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.
The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.
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| 09:00 | JA | Supermarket Sales | - | -0.6% | -1.2% |
The amount of supermarket sales in Japan.
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| 10:30 | FR | Consumer Price Index | -0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y | 0.4% m/m, 2.5% y/y | -0.4% m/m, 2.3% y/y |
Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
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| 12:00 | FR | PMI Services | 51.9 | 52.3 | 50.3 |
Gauge for the overall performance of the country's service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the country's service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.
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| 12:00 | FR | PMI Manufacturing | 48.7 | 48.5 | 50.2 |
A monthly guage of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.
The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.
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| 12:30 | GE | PMI Manufacturing | 51.1 | 51 | 50.1 |
Gauge for overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. Through asking executives about sales and employment outlook, the survey strives to provide useful information about the business climate that can lead to developments in employment, output and consumption. The PMI survey results are the result of interviews with business executives. Manufacturing is an important sector in Germany , which is why changes in Manufacturing PMI can provide a good indicator to the overall economic condition in Germany as well as Euro-zone. However, despite the timeliness of the report, Manufacturing PMI is not a big market mover.
The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term manufacturing business conditions. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change.
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| 12:30 | GE | PMI Services | 53.6 | 53.7 | 52.6 |
Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.
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| 13:00 | IT | Consumer Price Index | 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y | 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y | 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y |
Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Italy , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Italian household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
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| 13:00 | EU | PMI Manufacturing | 49.3 | 48.8 | 49 |
The Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Euro-zone GDP, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration.
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| 13:00 | EU | Composite PMI | 50.5 | 50.4 | 49.7 |
Indicator shows business confidence in the private segment of Eurozone Economy.
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| 13:10 | EU | PMI Services | 50.7 | 50.4 | 49.4 |
Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.
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| 13:30 | UK | Bank of England Minutes | - | - | - |
BoE releases the minutes of the MPC meeting.
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| 14:00 | EU | Industrial New Orders | 0.6% m/m, -2.8% y/y | -1.3% m/m, -2.7% y/y | 1.9% m/m, -1.7% y/y |
The value of new contracts for goods produced by the manufacturing sector. A rising level of Industrial New Orders forecasts increased production and a rising GDP. There are two headline numbers released for this report, month to month and annualized change.
Note: Although the industrial manufacturing sector contributes only a quarter of Euro-zone GDP, it accounts for most of the variations in GDP.
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| 16:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications | - | -1% | -4.5% |
Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure.
Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.
Note: Due to volatility in the sector, markets also focus on the four week moving averages.
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| 19:00 | US | Existing home sales | 4.67 mln | 4.61 mln | 4.57 mln |
Records sales of previously owned homes in the United States . This report provides a fairly accurate assessment of housing market conditions, and because of the sensitivity of the housing market to business cycle twists, it can be an important indicator of overall conditions at times when housing is particularly important to the economy.
While used home sales are not counted in GDP, they do affect the United States economy. Sellers of used homes often use capital gains from property sales on consumption that stimulate the economy. Higher levels of consumer spending may also increase inflationary pressures, even as they help grow the economy.
The existing home sales report is not as timely as other housing indicators like New Home Sales or Building Permits. By the time the Existing Home Sales are recorded, market conditions may have changed.
The headline is the total value of properties sold.
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| 23, February 2012 |
| 04:30 | AU | Average Weekly Wages | 1% q/q, 4.7% y/y | 1.2% q/q, 5.3% y/y | - |
The average wage is a measure for the financial well-being of a country's inhabitants.
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| 10:30 | RU | International reserves | - | USD 509.1 bln | - |
The amount of international reserves reflects the external - economic turnover and capital flows during earlier periods.
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| 13:00 | GE | IFO Current Assessment | 116.5 | 116.3 | - |
One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (IFO - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Euro-zone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Euro-Zone GDP.
Consequently, the German IFO is a significant economic health indicator for the Euro-zone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low IFO readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.
The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.
IFO Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.
IFO Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.
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| 13:00 | GE | IFO - Expectations | 102 | 100.9 | - |
One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (IFO - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Euro-zone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Euro-Zone GDP. Consequently, the German IFO is a significant economic health indicator for the Euro-zone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low IFO readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.
The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.
IFO Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.
IFO Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.
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| 13:00 | GE | IFO business climate index | 108.6 | 108.3 | - |
One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (IFO - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Euro-zone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Euro-Zone GDP.
Consequently, the German IFO is a significant economic health indicator for the Euro-zone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low IFO readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.
The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.
IFO Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.
IFO Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.
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| 13:00 | IT | Consumer Confidence | 92 | 91.6 | - |
Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Italian economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Italian consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.
A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.
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| 13:30 | UK | BBA Loans for House Purchase | - | 36.2K | - |
The number of issued mortgage loans.
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| 15:00 | UK | CBI industrial order books balance | -13 | -16 | - |
This review reflects businessmen sentiment concerning the position of the industrial sector of the economy.
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| 17:00 | MX | G20 meeting | - | - | - |
G20 Meetings of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.
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| 17:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 345K | 348K | - |
The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes.
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| 19:00 | US | House Price Index | 0.3% | 1% | - |
A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.
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| 24, February 2012 |
| 02:30 | AU | RBA Gov Stevens Speaks | - | - | - |
Glenn Stevens has been Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia since 18 September 2006.
Governor Stevens is Chairman of the Reserve Bank Board. He is also Chairman of the Payments System Board, Council of Financial Regulators and Financial Markets Foundation for Children. In addition, he serves as Director of The Anika Foundation.
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| 03:50 | JA | Corporate Service Price Index | 0.1% | 0.1% | - |
Change in the price of services purchased by corporations. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.
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| 06:00 | CN | Coincident indicators | - | 0.8% | - |
Measures the current economic activity based on a composite of indicators that track current business conditions.
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| 06:00 | CN | Leading indicators | - | 0.7% | - |
Movements in these indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy.
The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.
The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.
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| 09:00 | RU | Monetary base | - | RUR 6757.9 bln | - |
The monetary base is volume of money in the economy consists of currency (banknotes and coins) in circulation and commercial banks reserves in the Central Bank.
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| 11:00 | GE | GDP | 0.2% q/q, 1.5% y/y | -0.2% q/q, 1.5% y/y | - |
An indicator for broad overall growth in Germany. Robust German GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
The headline figure for German GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.
Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in Germany within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only.
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| 11:45 | FR | Consumer Confidence | 81 | 81 | - |
Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the French economy. The figure is derived from a telephone survey of 2000 of French households that inquires about expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Thus, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and inflationary expectations.
The headline figure is the difference between the percentage of positive responses and the percentage of negative answers.
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| 13:00 | IT | Retail Sales | - | -0.3% m/m, -1.8% y/y | - |
Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Data can be seasonally adjusted data (sa) or non-seasonally adjusted (nsa).
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| 13:30 | UK | PMI Services | 0.2% | 0.1% | - |
A monthly gauge of the UK service sector that takes into account business outlook. The survey queries executives in transport and communications, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT, hotels and restaurants.
Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the service sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.
Because the contribution Services makes to the economy tends to be very consistent and predictable, Services PMI figures typically do not move markets
The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.
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| 13:30 | UK | GDP revised | -0.2% q/q, 0.8% y/y | -0.2% q/q, 0.8% y/y | - |
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced with in a country. GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.
On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation.
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| 18:55 | US | Michigan sentiment index | 72.5 | 72.5 | - |
Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling U Mich Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. UMich figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.
The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable replies from the percentage of favorable replies.
U. of Michigan Confidence (Preliminary)
Early assessment of consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power. This preliminary figure incorporates approximately 60% of responses that are included in the final figure, and is revised at the end of the month. The preliminary results are not intended for wide release but are regularly leaked to the press and often available to the financial community.
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| 19:00 | US | New Home Sales | 316K | 307K | - |
Records sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them.
Generally the housing market is tracked by a number of reports that mark different stages of the construction and home sale process. The first stage is Building Permits, which precede Housing Starts, which lead to Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Applications and, finally, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales. As the headline housing figure, New Home Sales are believed to control for some of the volatility of other data. For instance, Building Permits and Housing Starts are considered more indicative of business confidence and production rather than consumer spending. And while Existing Home Sales figures are more indicative of consumer expenditures, they are lagging indicators with less predictive value. New Home Sales numbers are considered confirmatory of housing trends and still predictive of consumer spending.
New Home Sales is also a good indicator of economic turning points due to its sensitivity to consumer income. Buying a house is always a major expenditure, typically only undertaken when consumers have sufficient savings or are optimistic about future earnings. Historically, when economic conditions slow, New Home Sales are one of the first indicators to reflect the change. By the same token, New Home Sales undergo substantial growth when the economy has emerged from recession and wages have begun to pick up.
The report headline is the total amount of properties sold.
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